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2015 Atlantic hurricane season (hypothetical)

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2015 Atlantic hurricane season (hypothetical)
First storm formed April 19
Last storm dissipated September 2
Strongest storm Hurricane Alyssa (100 mph, 974 hPa)
Total storms 3
Hurricanes {{{hurricanes}}}
Major hurricanes {{{major hurricanes}}}
Total damages $1 billion (2015 USD)
Total fatalities 19

The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly active hurricane season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The death total was 618, in which 19 was from Hurricane Alyssa which slammed into the Southern Gulf coast as a category 2 hurricane, 4 from Hurricane Catherine which caused decent damage to Bermuda as a strong tropical storm, 10 from Hurricane Derek which struck NE Florida as a CAT II, 12 from Hurricane Ida which hit Cuba as a CAT II and Florida as a CAT I , 46 from Hurricane Fonzie, and 539 from Hurricane James. The strongest hurricane was Hurricane James which reached peak strength at CAT V with winds of approximately 205mph. In the spring of 2016, the hurricane names 'Fonzie' and 'James' were retired from re-use, respectively.

Storms

Hurricane Alyssa

Hurricane Alyssa 2
Hurricane Alyssa (hypothetical) [[Image:|150px|]]
Duration April 29—May 5
Intensity 100 mph, 974 mbar

A tropical depression formed off the coast of Belize on May 31 and strengthened into a tropical storm the next day as it scooted to the West of Cuba and entered the Gulf Of Mexico. The strengthening tropical storm became a hurricane on June 02 and that night it peaked winds of 100 miles per hour, making it a category 2 hurricane as it made landfall near Gulfport, Mississippi. It rapidly weakened back into a tropical storm the next morning over Northern Mississippi and then a tropical depression that evening in South Tennessee. The remmants of Alyssa tracked Northwest toward the Central Plains dumping heavy downpours and gusty wind. 19 were killed and many others were rescued.

Tropical Storm Bret

A tropical disturbance tracking just to the East of the Atlantic coast of Florida developed into a tropical depression about 80 miles ENE of Cape Canaveral, Florida and then the

next day into Tropical Storm Bret just off the coast of Southern Georgia bringing dangerous swells into the Southeast United States from Central Florida Northward to the

Carolinas. Over the next couple of days, Bret began to pull away from the United States and eventually was absorbed by a coastal cold front Northwest of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Bret TS
Tropical Storm Bret (hypothetical) [[Image:|150px|]]
Duration August 13—August 18
Intensity 70 mph, 993 mbar

Hurricane Catherine

==

Hurricane Catherine TC
Hurricane Catherine (hypothetical).jpg
Duration August 28—September 2
Intensity 80 mph, 998 mbar
====

On August 25, a tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa and was, at the time, very weak and disorganized. However, on August 26, the wind shear decreased and became more favorable for development allowing the disturbance to organize slightly while beginning to affect the Cape Verde Islands with rather squally weather. Then on August 28, the wave gained a closed circulation allowing it to become Tropical Depression Three, just a couple of hundred miles WSW of Cape Verde Islands. The depression encountered very warm waters and low wind shear making it become Tropical Storm Catherine late that night. On August 29, Catherine ran into slightly cooler waters which slowed the intensification significantly and made it stay at 45 MPH until' the morning of August 30 when it departed from the area of cool waters and blew up in intensification and was a hurricane by early September 01. By then, it was approaching the Lesser Antilles and hurricane watches were put up for Barbados, St. Lucia and Puerto Rico. But the advisories were cancelled just a matter of hours later when Catherine took a drastic turn to the North, now making Bermuda the prime target. All of a sudden, the waters dramatically began to cool down and by September 02, Catherine was only a tropical storm but Bermuda was still in its sight and tropical storm watches, even hurricane watches were up in case Catherine re-intensifies which it didn't but by September 04, Bermuda was getting drenched as the storm passed right over the island with sustained surface winds of around 60 miles per hour (994 mb). Catherine's speed also began to change and that night, Catherine was racing at almost 40 MPH away from the island and became extratropical the next day, bringing its moisture to Nova Scotia and surrounding areas.

Tropical Depression Four

On September 2, a hybrid low formed well East of The Bahamas but had hard time organizing due to high shear caused by nearby Hurricane Catherine. However as Catherine pulled well to the North, the shear relaxed and the low was moving due West--undergoing an explosive development cycle on the 4th. Early on September 5th as it was just offshore Riveria Beach FL the RECON found gale force winds near it along with a closed circulation leading it to being declared TD-4. It slowly creeped NNW, nearly making landfall near Jupiter Island FL with 35-MPH winds. Although it didn't directly move ashore, the circulation of the depression caused some 3-5 inches of rainfall to fall in parts of Coastal East Florida from West Palm Beach up to Daytona Beach and up to 2 inches as far South as Boca from the moisture, helping relieve the severe drought but still causing some decent flooding and major ponding on roads. Wind impact was very minor and damage was nearly spotless. Sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with some gusts over 30 MPH was reported in much of the area but no losses of power were reported and only minor beach erosion was confirmed in certain areas. On September 7th, TD-4 raced away and was absorbed by a massive low which later affected parts of the Eastern U.S. Some high surf advisories, flood advisories and lake wind advisories were issued in Florida as a result of TD-4.

Hurricane Derek

On September 5, a tropical wave emerged off of Africa and immediately began to show signs of organization. On September 6, it was declared Tropical Depression Five just West of the Cape Verde Islands and TS Derek later that day. It continued to gradually intensify and become a hurricane on the morning of September 8. By that time the Northern Leeward Islands grew on alert as on the 9th hurricane watches were issued and by the 10th it was a strong CAT II hurricane when it made its closest approach to the NE Caribbean Islands/Puerto Rico, less than 30 miles from the islands and 60-80 MPH sustained winds along with gusts up to 100 MPH and minor to moderate structural damage such as mild roof damage to poorly-constructed homes and roughly 60% lost power during the height. Only one person was killed when she drove her car into floodwaters near San Juan, PR. After that warm SST's and relatively low shear allowed for Derek to continue steady intensification into a major hurricane on the evening of September 11 as it begin to curve to the NW parralel to The Bahamas. Hurricane warnings were issued for the SE portion of The Bahamas and tropical storm watches/warnings for the rest. However only tropical storm force winds and isolated power outages affected SE Bahamas while NW Bahamas just reported high swells and 20-30 MPH winds. At that time, Derek was forecast to affect the NC Outer Banks as a significant hurricane but then on the 13th just as hurricane watches were posted for the region, a change in pattern setup abruptly pushed Derek WSW in the direction of the GA/N FL coastline. Some slightly higher shear made Derek slightly weaken into a 105-MPH CAT II just as it beared down near the FL-GA border. Another quick changeof a high pressure trough slowed down movement of Hurricane Derek causing it to stall off the coast for a period of 24 hours, and intensified to a 150 MPH Cat 5+ storm. On Sept,12, 05:30am, a new D-Day was recorded as the storm hit the eastern seaboard causing massive damage to the Eastern seaboard from Daytona Beach FL to just south of Myrtle Beach SC. Due to little time for preparation, the effects were worse than it could have been imagine. Major damage was reported in all areas. Catastrophic loss of federal, state and local infrastucture,major loss of coastline to storm erosian, and a catastrophic loss of life-about 5000+ were killed in Florida and 3500+ in Georgia,mostly due to people that did not heed warnings from public officals. With storm surges of 25-27 feet in NE FL, 15-20 northward, estimates of damage topped 10 Billion easily making it the worst storm in US history. Due to the severe damage in Georgia/Florida, Derek was retired from the name list. No babies born for a year afterward on the eastcoast were named any version of Derek

Tropical Storm Erika

On September 8, the remmants of Hurricane Melana in the Eastern Pacific crossed Mexico and emerged into the Bay Of Campache, immediately re-organizing as it hit the boiling waters of the BOC and moved gradually NNE. On September 10, it gained a closed circulation so it was declared Tropical Depression Six just off the Texas coast. It strengthened into Tropical Storm Erika and made landfall just West of Galveston TX the next day with top surface winds of 50 MPH. Damage there was relatively minor and no fatalities or serious injuries were reported--the damage was limited to scattered power outages and a few downed tree limbs. A minor storm surge of 1-2 feet was reported and a few rescues were made from rough surf from Brownsville to Grande Isle. Tropical storm warnings were issued from Corpus Christi to the TX-LA border. Erika weakened as it moved inland but still heavy rains were reported as far North as Oklahoma.

Hurricane Fonzie

On September 10, a tropical wave emerged off of Africa and gradually organized. By September 12, it gained a closed circulation so it was declared Tropical Depression Seven about 1,150 miles E of the Northern Leeward Islands. It steadily intensified and became Tropical Storm Fonzie that evening. By September 14, Fonzie became a hurricane and was still strengthening while hurricane watches were put up for the Northern Lesser Antilles. But then Fonzie pulled an unusual trick--a rare dip to the SW and back W sparing the Northern Lesser Antilles as it became a CAT II on September 15. Now hurricane watches were posted for Jamaica. But Fonzie still brought significant damage to the Windward Islands as it passed through the region with 105-MPH winds. Even higher SST's made Fonzie undergo an extreme rapid intenisfication into a major hurricane on the morning of September 16 and a CAT V later that day. By now hurricane warnings were up for Jamaica and residents there were frantically preparing for what could've been and was almost considered a catastrophic storm. But a brief spot of cooler SSTs just before Jamaica made it weaken into a CAT IV but it was already making landfall. Some areas suffered extreme devastation, others just significant damage. A total of 22 people were killed there and millions nearly billions of dollars in damage--it was still considered the worst hurricane to hit the island since 1988's Hurricane Gilbert. After causing severe widespread destruction in Jamaica, Fonzie now a much-weakened CAT II headed straight for the Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico. Warm SST's helped it intensify into a low-end CAT III before landfall in the Yucatan. Damage there wasn't quite as severe as in Jamaica, but still significant damage such as roof damage and roof blown off some poorly-constructed houses. A total of 9 people were killed there. Fonzie weakened into a CAT I then gradually re-intensified into CAT II before hitting Mainland Mexico about 100 miles South of the US border. Damage there was even less but still minor roof damage to some houses and many power outages. One woman was killed there when she was stepping outside after the storm but accidentally stumbled upon an electrical wire, electricuting her. Also a man was killed about 60 miles North when surfing large waves. The impact in South Texas was just some elevated surf and breezy conditions. Because of the total fatality count and the heavy damage in both Jamaica and Yucatan (less there but still significant), Fonzie was retired from the name list. The last major hurricane before Fonzie to impact Jamaica whatsoever was Hurricane Jose in 2011.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

On September 18, a large extratropical system near the Azores drifted WSW gradually attained more subtropical characteristics. On September 20 as it was 600 miles NE of Bermuda 50+ MPH winds and a closed circulation was found with it therefore it was declared Subtropical Storm Gabrielle with 50-MPH winds. But as it dipped further SW and slowly intenisfied, on September 21 it attained tropical characteristics renaming it to Tropical Storm Gabrielle. With 65-MPH winds, it was headed in the general direction of Bermuda. Bermudan residents began to keep a close eye on the system due to concerns that it will become a hurricane and strike the island, with worse conditions than Hurricane Catherine about a month earlier and even hurricane watches were issued. However things turned for the better when it hit an area of very high shear weakening it significantly into a TD by the time it began to impact the island on September 23 therefore the hurricane watches were dropped. As the weakening depression passed just under 20 miles W of the island, scattered showers and a peak wind gust of 31 MPH (sustained peak at 22 MPH) along with slightly elevated swells were reported and causing no noteable damage. A total of 1.5 inches was confirmed in Hamilton, causing very minor street flooding. But as Gabrielle degenerated into a remmant low over the West-Central Atlantic Waters, it took a turn to the WSW and began racing at 30 MPH. Models made it regenerate into a tropical storm and hit the Florida East Coast by the 29th or 30th however no re-organization occured and it was just a tiny cloud by the time it reached Florida, just bringing isolated showers and 15-MPH winds to the Cocoa Beach area.

Tropical Storm Hailey

A tropical disturbance formed in the Bay Of Campeche on October 12 and developed into TD-10 on October 13 then briefly intensified into a 40-MPH Tropical Storm Hailey that evening once it made landfall in Veracruz, bringing soaking rains and gusty winds to areas struck by Hurricane Fonzie nearly a month earlier. No fatalities or serious injuries were reported and very minor damage was reported limited to extremely isolated power outages and decent street flooding. Its remmants crossed into the Eastern Pacific and became Category 5 Hurricane Sela days later.

Hurricane Ida

A tropical disturbance formed in the Eastern Caribbean on October 18 and began to show signs of organization as it brought numerous showers to the Windward Islands. On October 20, as it passed just to the South of Jamaica it organized enough to be declared TD-11. It became Tropical Storm Ida later that day then curved NW and rapidly intensified into a CAT II hurricane on October 21 as it struck Western Cuba with 105-MPH winds causing heavy damage and killing 8 people. It weakened into CAT I and took a re-curve to the NE making landfall near North Port FL with 90-MPH winds on October 22 and exitting out near Jensen Beach FL later that day as a 70-MPH tropical storm. Hurricane-force winds were felt from North Port Charlotte to Englewood and tropical-storm force winds from Bonita Beach to Saint Petersburg along the Gulf Coast and from Jupiter Island to Sebastian along the Atlantic Coast. Hurricane warnings were posted from North Fort Myers to Venice and from Jupiter Island to Vero Beach. A total of 4 people were killed in the state--3 in the Keys and one near Port Charlotte and minor to moderate damage such as numerous power outages along the Gulf Coast and scattered to numerous along the Atlantic Coast. After leaving the coast, Ida raced in the general direction of South Carolina as a weak category 1 hurricane. It sped parralel to the US Eastern Seaboard as a large nearly extra-tropical storm bringing beach erosion and many rescues along the coast but causing no fatalities.

Hurricane James

On October 23rd, a tropical wave was closely monitored and was given a 50% chance of organization. The wave brought heavy showers to Cape Verde, about 500 miles north. That day, the tropical wave developed into Tropical Depression 11 and quickly thereafter, Tropical Storm James. James roared northeast at an amazing speed and began gaining strength, hitting hurricane status as it moved towards the southeastern United States. A hurricane watch was issued for almost the entire state of South Carolina and portions of North Carolina. Millions were forced to evacuate in the wake of the now major James, which had winds of approximately 130 miles per hour. James still strengthened, reaching Category 4 and Category 5 status when it still strengthened, peaking winds at 205 miles per hour. James then made landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, as a Category Five hurricane. James brought horrible rip tides to the East Coast as it brought storm surge, heavy flooding, and extremely high winds to the Carolinas. James eventually began dissipating, but and curved back into the ocean as a remnant low. James killed relatively low than what it was capable of due to good evacuations, making the number at a still-high 539. Damage was estimated to be at about $79.6 billion. In the spring of 2016, the name 'James' was retired from re-use, respectively.

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